The 36-Month AI Reckoning: Why 15-25 AM Law 100 Firms Will Dissolve or Merge by 2029

For decades, the business model of Big Law has been a fortress, built on the bedrock of the billable hour and the leverage of junior associates. AI won't knock that down overnight, but it is breaching the walls. Artificial intelligence isn't just another tech upgrade; it's a structural shock that will drive sustained price pressure and consolidation across the Am Law 100. Thomson Reuters estimates AI-enabled time savings equate to about $20 billion annually for the U.S. legal market—savings corporate clients will expect to see in their invoices.

The stakes are quantifiable. The U.S. law-firms market is roughly $418–$427 billion (2024–2025), per IBISWorld. The Am Law 100 generated approximately $158.3 billion in 2024 revenue, concentrated in document-intensive practices where AI has its sharpest edge. The pressure is not merely "opportunity to capture"; it's deflationary force that clients will demand law firms pass through.